The current TSP Timing systems were introduced on 8/31/2020. The table below shows backtested results of the “Annual” and “Election Cycle” systems from 2004-20, and the real-time returns in 2021.
The Federal Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) is by its nature a do-it-yourself endeavor. The investing decisions you make for your TSP will shape your retirement.
- How have your past TSP returns compared to your goals?
- Are you ahead or behind schedule?
- Do you often wish you could do better?
TSP Timing offers a unique investing strategy that could allow you to improve the returns on your TSP investments.
“Your timing method gives us an edge, and it reduces risk for the same amount of gain because we’re not long on stocks 100% of the time. That fact by itself adds value!….keep up the great work! – M.S., Maryland
The current TSP Timing systems out-performed the return of the C fund (the TSP’s S&P 500 Index fund) for eighteen consecutive years through 2021 (backtested/optimized returns). The current systems were introduced on August 31, 2020. All returns prior to 8/31/20 are “backtested” and subject to “overfitting”, so please note that future returns are not likely to match the prior backtested/optimized results. The 2021 real-time returns did NOT beat the return of the C fund (this was primarily due to the very poor performance of the S fund in late 2021). The TSP Timing systems use 20 to 25 intrafund transfers per year, and are in stocks (the C, S, or I funds) less than 65% to 70% of the time during periods that were historically positive for stocks. The systems move to the G or F during periods with historically negative returns. Each month the data is analyzed to adjust future IFTs if appropriate. Using this method the systems should produce solid returns, but with a lower risk.
TSP Timing helps answer the question: When I retire, should I stay with the TSP or roll over to an IRA?
Are you thinking of rolling over your Thrift Savings Plan to an Individual Retirement Account (IRA)? Think carefully. About half of Federal retirees do roll over their accounts to an IRA, however with the strategy provided by TSP Timing you’ll see why it makes perfect sense to leave your money in the TSP and take advantage of the TSP’s ultra-low fees that no external IRA can match. By staying with the TSP you also won’t be tempted by chasing hot stocks and strategies that could ultimately destroy your savings. Why take that risk?
“I don’t often write but thought I would with a question about rolling my IRA back into the TSP. I am 62 and am retiring end of this Sep and planning on doing some part-time contract work for a few years. Roughly two years ago, I transferred most of my TSP into a managed IRA. Now I’m thinking of transferring it back into the TSP. Why? I believe I would have done better staying in the TSP.”
It may possible to do better than you can do with the TSP if you use Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) outside of the TSP, but you have to use the right ETFs, and the right strategies. One big advantage with using ETFs is that you can “short” the market during bear markets, but you better get the timing right, and no one can do that consistently. It’s possible to use the TSP Timing strategy in any account with ETFs, and since outside of the TSP you wouldn’t be restricted to the limit of two intrafund transfers per month, there are ways to do even better outside the TSP, but is it really necessary to risk that when you can achieve great returns in the TSP?
“What you have put together is really great (really worth the money paid) and has helped me tremendously.” – J.S., Maryland
“Thanks again for the product. I was up reading it last night, and I got to admit, this is VERY IMPRESSIVE! I haven’t put pen to paper yet or started working in the Excel worksheets, but I am blown away at all that you did. Thank you for putting this together.” – W.V., California
TSP Timing is very unique. Unlike other Thrift Savings Plan investing advisory services you won’t need to shell out money every month/quarter/year for an endless subscription. Instead, with just a one-time purchase of $119 you will receive all the information you need in a single email with a spreadsheet (Microsoft Excel Workbook) and instruction manual to set your TSP on auto-pilot for the rest of your career and retirement years. As part of the purchase, for 12 months you’ll get an updated spreadsheet and a month-end “report card”/newsletter on how the system did that month and other information. After 12 months you can either continue to update the spreadsheet yourself, or if you’d like to extend the monthly update service you can do so every 12 months for just $59. TSP Timing is a “mechanical” system with a set of rules that pre-determines all future IFTs. So there’s no thought involved, other than the rules/IFTs do change over time as the data available grows, so in this way it is a continually evolving “living” system. Just enter the scheduled IFTs and then ignore the news, sleep better, and enjoy the life you dream of instead of worrying about the next stock market collapse.
You’re skeptical, and that’s good. Continue on and you’ll learn why this is for real, not a hocus-pocus snake-oil sales pitch.
TSP Timing is not affiliated with or sanctioned by the United States government, the Federal Retirement Thrift Investing Board, or the Thrift Savings Plan. There are no guarantees that past performance will match future results.