The current TSP Timing strategies were introduced on 8/31/2020. The table below shows backtested results of the “Annual” and “Election Cycle” systems from 2004-20.
The real-time returns for the initial twelve-month period from 9/1/2020 through 8/31/21 were as follows:
- C fund: +31.13%
- TSP Timing Annual System: +36.20%
- TSP Timing Election Cycle System: +47.74%
The Federal Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) is by its nature a do-it-yourself endeavor. The investing decisions you make for your TSP will shape your retirement.
- How have your past TSP returns compared to your goals?
- Are you ahead or behind schedule?
- Do you often wish you could do better?
TSP Timing offers a unique investing strategy that could allow you to improve the returns on your TSP investments.
“Your timing method gives us an edge, and it reduces risk for the same amount of gain because we’re not long on stocks 100% of the time. That fact by itself adds value!….keep up the great work! – M.S., Maryland
The current TSP Timing system has out-performed the return of the C fund (the TSP’s S&P 500 Index fund) for seventeen consecutive years through 2020. That’s better than the record setting fifteen consecutive years achieved by the legendary investor Bill Miller during the 1990s. The current system was introduced in mid-2020, and is much simpler then the prior “Enhanced” system (which also had great returns but was more complicated). The chart below shows how the new TSP Timing strategy (top line) performed since January 1, 2004. Note: The new system went “live” on June 29, 2020, and additional changes were finished on August 31, 2020. All returns prior to 8/31/20 are “back tested” and subject to “overfitting”, but the exact same rules that worked in the past will continue to be used going forward. The system uses time-tested methods used by many legendary market timers/advisors which have been shown to outperform the returns of the S&P 500 over time.
The TSP Timing system uses about 24 intrafund transfers per year, is in stocks (the C, S, or I funds) less than 65% of the time, and yet from 2004-2020 the back-tested results achieved an amazing compound annual return of over 33%! How did your returns compare to these results?
TSP Timing helps answer the question: When I retire, should I stay with the TSP or roll over to an IRA?
Are you thinking of rolling over your Thrift Savings Plan to an Individual Retirement Account (IRA)? Think carefully. About half of Federal retirees do roll over their accounts to an IRA, however with the strategy provided by TSP Timing you’ll see why it makes perfect sense to leave your money in the TSP and take advantage of the TSP’s ultra-low fees that no external IRA can match. By staying with the TSP you also won’t be tempted by chasing hot stocks and strategies that could ultimately destroy your savings. Why take that risk?
“I don’t often write but thought I would with a question about rolling my IRA back into the TSP. I am 62 and am retiring end of this Sep and planning on doing some part-time contract work for a few years. Roughly two years ago, I transferred most of my TSP into a managed IRA. Now I’m thinking of transferring it back into the TSP. Why? I believe I would have done better staying in the TSP.”
It may possible to do better than you can do with the TSP if you use Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) outside of the TSP, but you have to use the right ETFs, and the right strategies. One big advantage with using ETFs is that you can “short” the market during bear markets, but you better get the timing right, and no one can do that consistently. It’s possible to use the TSP Timing strategy in any account with ETFs, and since outside of the TSP you wouldn’t be restricted to the limit of two intrafund transfers per month, there are ways to do even better outside the TSP, but is it really necessary to risk that when you can achieve great returns in the TSP? Note: I’ve also developed an “ETF Timing” system that does indeed get even better returns than the TSP returns shown above. When you purchase TSP Timing I will also provide this spreadsheet at no additional cost.
“What you have put together is really great (really worth the money paid) and has helped me tremendously.” – J.S., Maryland
“Thanks again for the product. I was up reading it last night, and I got to admit, this is VERY IMPRESSIVE! I haven’t put pen to paper yet or started working in the Excel worksheets, but I am blown away at all that you did. Thank you for putting this together.” – W.V., California
TSP Timing is very unique. Unlike other Thrift Savings Plan investing advisory services you won’t need to shell out money every month/quarter/year for an endless subscription. Instead, with just a one-time purchase of $119 you will receive all the information you need in a single email with a spreadsheet (Microsoft Excel Workbook) and instruction manual to set your TSP on auto-pilot for the rest of your career and retirement years. As part of the purchase, for 12 months you’ll get an updated spreadsheet and a month-end “report card” on how the system did that month and other information. After 12 months you can either continue to update the spreadsheet yourself, or if you’d like to extend the monthly update service you can do so every 12 months for just $59. TSP Timing is a “mechanical” system with a set of rules that pre-determines all future IFTs. So there’s no thought involved, other than the rules/IFTs do change over time as the data available grows. Just enter the scheduled IFTs and then ignore the news, sleep better, and enjoy the life you dream of instead of worrying about the next stock market collapse.
You’re skeptical, and that’s good. Continue on and you’ll learn why this is for real, not a hocus-pocus snake-oil sales pitch.
TSP Timing is not affiliated with or sanctioned by the United States government, the Federal Retirement Thrift Investing Board, or the Thrift Savings Plan. There are no guarantees that past performance will match future results.