PLEASE NOTE: TSP Timing is not a traditional “service”. There are no “alerts” or a blog, etc. I do not send out emails and I do not provide investing “advice”. None of this is necessary since the strategy is totally mechanical and is not affected by news, technical indicators etc. You will decide on your own if you choose to follow it, or not. Continue reading for more details…
The TSP Timing system is a combination of mostly “seasonal” strategies and cycles, which, over time, have proven to significantly outperform a “buy and hold” investing approach. These are strategies developed by well-known stock market technical analysts such as Jeffrey Hirsch and Jay Kaeppel. These include annual and decennial cycles, election cycles, holidays, monthly patterns and much more. I’ve spent countless hours studying and picking from the best of these strategies and verifying that they work with the TSP using my workbook which includes daily TSP data from 2004 to present, and monthly data since the early 1990s. In some cases I’ve tweaked dates and the entire system is built around the TSP’s limitation of just two intrafund transfers per month. Using past data from the five primary TSP funds I determined which funds you should use at different times of the year, even different times of the month (for example, I provide a detailed analysis showing exactly which times of each month of the year the F fund outperforms the G fund and use this in the system). You’ve probably heard of the “Sell in May and go away” axiom. TSP Timing takes that strategy and adds dozens of enhancements. For example, did you know that the periods surrounding Thanksgiving and Independence Day are even more bullish that the Christmas holidays? You can think of TSP Timing as “Sell in May and go away” on steroids. In the past I even incorporated phases of the moon! (that was part of the “Enhanced” system, but the current system doesn’t include that).
Additionally, the spreadsheet now provides statistical data for each IFT regarding what percent of the time each trade has resulted in a gain, and how much the gain was. This way you can decide whether or not to implement each trade, and know what results to anticipate if the past averages are repeated.
Over the period of 2004-2019, the (back-tested) TSP Timing “Annual” system resulted in an astounding compound annual return of over 31%, and the “Election Cycle” system which uses four separate sets of IFT rules for each of the four years of the election cycle has produced a ridiculous return of over 54%! As with any system, past performance does not guarantee future returns, but hopefully it will do a good job of navigating what I expect to be a very difficult investing decade in the 2020s. See the Performance tab for details.
A key feature of the TSP Timing strategy is that it has the potential for good returns but with reduced risk compared to staying 100% in stocks all the time. The Annual system spends approximately 38% of the time out of stocks in the super-safe G fund, or in the relatively low-risk and stable F fund. The Election cycle system varies, and spends approximately the following amount of time in stocks:
- Election years 62% of the year in one of the 3 stock funds
- Post-Election years 69% of the year in stocks
- Mid-Term years 69% of the year in stocks
- and Pre-Election years only 51% of the year in stocks.
The system was carefully designed to conform to and take maximum advantage of the TSP’s rules which limit participants to two transfers per month (any additional transfers after the second transfer in a calendar month must be to the G fund). In a typical year the Annual system places 24 intrafund transfers (IFTs) and the Election Cycle system ranges from 18 to 25 IFTs each year.
The TSP Timing system is effectively equivalent to a buy-and-hold portfolio consisting of about 60% stocks, and 40% in a typical year, and yet (based on past results) produces returns far exceeding those of an all-stock portfolio. How is this possible? It’s possible by using the variety of carefully chosen and combined seasonal timing strategies that avoid the most volatile and negative times of the year for stocks. If you’re smart and nerdy enough like me to want to spend the 1000’s of hours I have spent developing this system, including buying subscriptions and books needed to research it, then you might be able to come up with a similar system yourself. I have given you enough clues above to do it. It’s not rocket science, but I can assure you it’s not easy! And why do that when you can just pay me a mere $99 for the massive research and time spent I have done for you?
The current system is the result of spending literally 1000’s of hours I have spent since 2014 testing a multitude of strategies, with the end result being a much simpler system than the former “Enhanced” system, and even better returns than the former system. Note: The system will also work outside of the TSP using ETFs and I’m working on an even better system in that regard. The system uncannily avoids most of the big stock market panic plunges that most frequently occur in the summer and fall months, for example. Believe me, as I said I’m retired and I’m counting on it working for myself and I’m confident enough to use it. So I’m literally betting my retirement on it.
Considering the above, and the small fee I ask (I consider it a “donation” for the 1000’s of hours I’ve spent, plus I’m geeky enough to really enjoy this as a retirement hobby and would like to continue with it), how could you NOT at least check it out and maybe give it a try with a portion of your portfolio?
If you’re ready, head to the Purchase page to make your purchase, but first check out the Products page for details on what you will get.
Over time, this system will hopefully not only consistently beat the investing returns you and I would get through simple buy-and-hold strategies (or more typically buy high, then panic and sell near the lows strategies), but they also consistently blow away the returns of most money managers and even the best Wall Street pros. The performance data speaks for itself, take a look. Perhaps you may choose to just track the system on the spreadsheet. If you do, I’m confident that within a few years or just months you’ll be convinced that it works better than any method you’ve tried before, and you’ll use the strategy with a significant portion of your TSP account. By following the TSP Timing system you will no longer be led astray by listening to CNBC, friends, family, or gurus that keep their subscription revenues flowing with warnings of an imminent market collapse, or just your own gut which more often than not is wrong and just reacting to fear.
So how do you use the TSP Timing products? Easy, just review the materials you will receive with your purchase (see “Products” page), then decide if you want to follow it (or, as you’ll see through dozens of examples I provide on how I compared ideas to come up with the ideal system, you can even try out your own “tweaks” and modify the the system to your own liking), then use the provided IFT dates to make your moves. IFTs are provided for the current year and through next year (at a minimum, currently they go through 2022), but you will be able to add on future years very easily once you understand it. There are no periodic email or online updates, you just use the spreadsheet, but you’re welcome to contact me with questions, and after I complete each end-of-month update I’ll send you a new spreadsheet. All you have to do is remember to enter the IFTs on the dates shown (and remember, IFTs made by 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time will be reflected in your account at the end of that business day, while IFTs made after this time will be reflected in your account at the end of the next business day). These strategies are designed to work around the TSP intrafund transfer limitations that only allow two IFT’s per month (after that you can only move to the G fund), and having to decide whether or not to make a transfer by the noon Eastern time deadline. That’s no longer an issue with these strategies since you will know the IFT dates for literally YEARS in advance and you can enter the transfers at your leisure at any time during a 24-hour window.
If you have a Federal TSP account, TSP Timing is for you. You can be at any stage of your career, just starting out, mid-career, or retired, civilian or military, it doesn’t matter….you may be a GS-5 administrative professional, or a career SES employee, it doesn’t matter. These strategies are for anyone who wants to improve their returns and reduce stress. You can even use it for investing outside of the TSP using ETFs that mimic the TSP funds…. my wife has me implement the system with her own TSP account, so there’s a stamp of approval for sure!