PLEASE NOTE: TSP Timing is not a traditional “service”. There is no “subscription”. There are no “alerts” or a blog, etc. I do not send out emails and I do not provide investing “advice”. None of this is necessary since the strategy is totally mechanical and is not affected by news, technical indicators etc. Continue reading for more details…
The TSP Timing investing strategies are a combination of mostly “seasonal” strategies, which, over time, have proven to significantly outperform a “buy and hold” investing approach. I mix in decades of daily and monthly data from the five primary TSP funds to determine which funds you should use at different times of the year, even different times of the month (I provide data that determines exactly which times of each month of the year the F fund outperforms the G fund for example). You’ve probably heard of the “Sell in May and go away” axiom. TSP Timing takes that strategy and adds dozens of enhancements. For example, did you know that the periods surrounding Thanksgiving and Independence Day are even more bullish that the Christmas holidays? You can think of TSP Timing as “Sell in May and go away” on steroids. In the past I even incorporated phases of the moon! (but the current system doesn’t include that).
Over the period of 2004-2019, the system resulted in an astounding compound annual return of over 26%! As with any system, past performance does not guarantee future returns, but hopefully it will do a good job of navigating what I expect to be a very difficult investing decade in the 2020s. See the Performance tab for details.
A key feature of the TSP Timing strategy is that it has the potential for good returns but with reduced risk compared to staying 100% in stocks all the time. The system spends approximately 25% of the time out of stocks in the super-safe G fund, or in the relatively low-risk and stable F fund.
Specifically, here’s the time spent in each fund during the year 2005. In that year the system spent…
- 73.6% of the year in one of the 3 stock funds (39 days in the C fund, 107 days in the S fund, and 38 days in the I fund).
- 26.4% of the year in the G and F fund (8 days in the G fund and 54 days in the F fund).
The system was carefully designed to conform to and take maximum advantage of the TSP’s rules which limit participants to two transfers per month (any additional transfers after the second transfer in a calendar month must be to the G fund). In a typical year the system places 19 to 21 intrafund transfers (IFTs).
Therefore the TSP Timing system is effectively equivalent to a buy-and-hold portfolio consisting of about three-quarters stocks, and one-quarter bonds/cash in a typical year, and yet (based on past results) produces returns far exceeding those of an all-stock portfolio. How is this possible? It’s possible by using a variety of carefully combined seasonal timing strategies that avoid the most volatile and negative times of the year for stocks. The current system is the result of spending literally 1000’s of hours since 2014 testing a multitude of strategies, with the end result being the returns currently shown. The system uncannily avoids most of the big stock market panic plunges that most frequently occur in the summer and fall months, for example. The system uses annual cycles, decennial cycles, election cycles, intra-month cycles and more. Resources used include information publicly available from seasonality gurus such as Jay Kaeppel and Jeffrey Hirsch, but instead of you needing to spend years reading and digesting their materials and try to come up with a system to make it all work, I have done the work for you and applied it all into a system that I hope will continue to work very well. Believe me, I’m retired and I’m counting on it working and I’m confident enough to use it. So I’m literally betting my retirement on it.
Considering the above, and the small fee (I consider it a donation for the 1000’s of hours I’ve spent) I ask, how could you not at least check it out and maybe give it a try with a portion of your portfolio?
If you’re ready, head to the Purchase page to make your purchase, but first check out the How it Works page for details on how the strategies work, and the Products page for details on what you will get.
This is not a “hocus pocus” or “black box” investment strategy; it is very real. I’ve compiled numerous sources of information, and over the last six years and counting I spent thousands of hours analyzing it. Through trial and error and endless hours of experimenting and back-testing I’ve developed a system that is both the simplest and provides the best returns yet. Over time, these strategies not only consistently beat the investing returns you and I would get through simple buy-and-hold strategies, but they also consistently blow away the returns of most money managers and even the best Wall Street pros. The performance data speaks for itself, take a look, it works. Perhaps you may choose to just track the system on the spreadsheet. If you do, I’m confident that within a few years you’ll be convinced that it works better than any method you’ve tried before, and you’ll use the strategy with a significant portion of your investment portfolios. By following the TSP Timing strategy you will no longer be led astray by listening to CNBC, friends, family, or gurus that keep their subscription revenues flowing with warnings of an imminent market collapse, or just your own gut which more often than not is wrong and just reacting to fear.
So how do you use the TSP Timing products? Easy, just review the materials you will receive with your purchase (see “Products” page), then decide if you want to follow it (or, as you’ll see through dozens of examples I provide on how I compared ideas to come up with the ideal system, you can even try out your own “tweaks” and modify the the system to your own liking), then use the provided IFT dates to make your moves. IFTs are provided for the current year and through next year (at a minimum, currently they go through 2022), but you will be able to add on future years very easily once you understand it. There are no periodic email or online updates, you just use the spreadsheet, but you’re welcome to contact me with questions. All you have to do is remember to enter the IFTs on the dates shown (and remember, IFTs made by 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time will be reflected in your account at the end of that business day, while IFTs made after this time will be reflected in your account at the end of the next business day). These strategies are designed to work around the TSP intrafund transfer limitations that only allow two IFT’s per month (after that you can only move to the G fund), and having to decide whether or not to make a transfer by the noon Eastern time deadline. That’s no longer an issue with these strategies since you will know the IFT dates for literally YEARS in advance and you can enter the transfers at your leisure at any time during a 24-hour window.
If you have a Federal TSP account, TSP Timing is for you. (Note: The system could easily be used outside of the TSP with ETFs as well) You can be at any stage of your career, just starting out, mid-career, or retired, civilian or military, it doesn’t matter….you may be a GS-5 administrative professional, or a career SES employee, it doesn’t matter. These strategies are for anyone who wants to improve their returns and reduce stress. You can even use it for investing outside of the TSP using ETFs that mimic the TSP funds…. my wife even has me implement the system with her own TSP account, so there’s a stamp of approval for sure.