Over the time period covered (the strategies were developed through back-testing of the period from January 2004 through June 2016, then went “live” in July 2016), the TSP Timing strategies have provided superior returns (better long-term returns than ALL 16 other TSP-specific services that I am aware of; if you find one that has done better since 2004, let me know). Plus, there are no annual subscription fees, and the one-time purchase fee of $145 is less than what most services charge in a single year. There is no hand-holding necessary, you are in full control of your investments as you should be. Just choose the strategy you want to use, and if you stick with it consistently there’s a good chance you will do well.
“If I had to research and analyze what you have put together, it would have taken me many many hours if I had even found the information your provided. I can now investigate and build on what you have done – this is part of the reason that I consider it very good value for money.” – J.S., Maryland
TSP Timing’s strategies also routinely beat all three of the recommended TSP portfolio’s of well-known “retirement mentor” featured on MarketWatch, Paul Merriman. These returns are included for comparison in the performance table below, and are tracked by the spreadsheet you will receive upon purchase.
Here’s a link to a third-party tracking service (TimerTrac.com) which shows real-time (delayed by two weeks) returns of the top performing “Bull/Bear” strategy:
TSP Timing Returns:
The chart below depicts how various strategies performed over the 14-year period beginning January 1, 2004. The tracked strategies include buying and holding the TSP’s C, S or L funds, a balanced portfolio of 60% stocks (30% C, 30% S) and 40% bonds (F fund), following the TSP recommendations of well-known investment advisor Paul Merriman, and the Basic, Enhanced, and Bull/Bear strategies offered here at TSPtiming.com.
Below are two images taken from the TSP Timing Data spreadsheet showing the annual and compound returns through December 2017 of all the strategies that are tracked. This first image shows the various buy-and-hold strategies, and Paul Merriman’s recommended conservative/moderate/aggressive strategies. The second image shows the returns of the various TSP Timing strategies. Note that several versions of the TSP Timing strategies are tracked within each general category (Basic, Enhanced and Bull/Bear), depending on whether or not you wish to utilize the F and I funds. The best returns have been obtained by using all five TSP funds, G, F, C, S and I. The row “Beat C?” shows how many years during the 13-year period each strategy beat the C fund (the S&P 500 index), which is the benchmark used by most investment advisers.
The 2018 returns for the C fund versus the TSP Timing strategies were as follows. 2018 was a learning experience for the system since a “tweak” made during April resulted in the Enhanced and Bull/Bear systems not beating the S&P 500. This tweak will not be used in future years and I expect the TSP Timing strategies to do better than the C fund in 2019. Also, one of the two methods provided by the manual produced a sell signal on November 19, 2018. If this signal was taken then an IFT to the F fund would have been made on that day, and resulted in a small gain of 3.35% for calendar year 2018. Since the Manual did not specify to use this signal this is not the official return for the Bull/Bear system in 2018.
- C fund: -4.41%
- TSP Timing Basic strategy: -13.54%
- TSP Timing Enhanced strategy: -7.18%
- TSP Timing Bull/Bear strategy: -7.18%
- TSP Timing Bull/Bear strategy when a sell signal on 11/19/2018 was taken: +3.35%
Another key feature of the TSP Timing strategies is that all of the strategies spend a considerable amount of time in the super-safe G fund, and the relatively low-risk and stable F fund. Specifically:
- The Basic strategy only has nine interfund transfers (IFTs) per year, and spends about 66% of the time in stocks, and 34% of the time in bonds or the G fund. Therefore the Basic strategy is effectively equivalent to a buy-and-hold portfolio consisting of 66% stocks, and 34% bonds/cash, and yet produces returns far exceeding those of an all-stock portfolio! How is this possible? It’s possible due to the timing strategies that avoid the most volatile and negative times of the year for stocks. The system uncannily avoids most of the big stock market panic plunges that most frequently occur in the summer and fall months, for example.
- The Enhanced strategy (and the Bull/Bear strategy, except when it is on a bear market signal) requires just 14 to 16 IFTs per year, and is in stocks for approximately 60% to 72% of each year. Even with that reduced exposure to stocks, these strategies have blown away the returns of the benchmark S&P 500, achieving about 2.5 times the annual return of the benchmark which most pros can’t beat consistently!
Considering the above, how could you not at least give this a try with a portion of your portfolio?
If you’re ready, head to the Purchase page to make your purchase, but first check out the How it Works page for details on how the strategies work, and the Products page for details on what you will get.