Over the time period covered (the first strategies were developed through backtesting of the period from January 2004 through June 2016, then went “live” in July 2016, and then the new method was developed and went “live” in 2020), the (back-tested/optimized) TSP Timing strategies have provided superior returns (better long-term returns than ALL of the other TSP-specific services that I am aware of; if you find one that has done better since 2004, let me know). Plus, there are no monthly/annual subscription fees unless you want to renew for additional 12-month periods. The initial purchase fee of $119 is less than what most services charge each year. Following your initial purchase I will send you monthly updates (and occasional interim updates if I see something that can’t wait for the end of the month) for 12 months. And beyond that first year if you want to continue with the monthly updates the cost is only $59 per year.
There is no hand-holding necessary, you are in full control of your investments as you should be. I do not send emails with IFT alerts, there is no blog, etc. There’s no need for any of that. Just follow the simple system with part or all of your TSP as you gain confidence in it.
“If I had to research and analyze what you have put together, it would have taken me many many hours if I had even found the information your provided. I can now investigate and build on what you have done – this is part of the reason that I consider it very good value for money.” – J.S., Maryland
“An incredible amount of research and hard work distilled down to a limited number of trades that maximizes returns while minimizing risks. Thanks again! – W.E, New Mexico
TSP Timing’s strategies also routinely beat all three of the formerly recommended TSP portfolio’s (“conservative”, “moderate”, and “aggressive”) of well-known “retirement mentor” Paul Merriman. The returns of those three portfolios are tracked on the TSP Timing spreadsheet for comparison.
The chart below depicts how the returns of TSP Timing compared to the C and S funds over the period since January 1, 2004.
Below is an image taken from the TSP Timing Data Excel workbook showing the (back-tested, except for the last 4 months of 2020) annual and compound returns through December 2020 of the strategies that are tracked. The image shows the various buy-and-hold strategies including holding a mix of 30% C fund, 30% S fund, and 40% F fund, Paul Merriman’s recommended conservative/moderate/aggressive strategies, a “Basic” seasonal strategy where you would move to the fund with the best historical performance in each calendar month, the now retired “Enhanced” TSP Timing strategy, and the current TSP Timing Annual and “Election Cycle” systems. The row “Beat C?” shows how many years during the 16-year period each strategy beat the C fund (the S&P 500 index), which is the benchmark used by most investment advisers. Note that the new TSP Timing systems have beaten the C fund return every single year, and had no negative returns. In fact the returns were in the double-digits every year so far!
I’m very happy with my purchase and wish I had known about this years ago….I think you’re brilliant and you clearly put in a lot of work on this. Well worth the cost.” – M.C., Massachusetts
Again, I can’t predict if these amazing returns will continue into the future, and since they are purely “backtested” results through August 2020 they will most definitely NOT be nearly so spectacular…”past returns do not guarantee future performance”. I also agree 100% with comments by Chris Barfield in this paper regarding backtesting. Even so, due to the methods used, I expect returns exceeding those of the S&P 500 over time. Personally, I retired at the end of 2018 and I have been making monthly withdrawals from my TSP account since then. My modest goal is to make at least 5%/year and withdraw 4%/year, but if I can make 8%/year that will make up for the loss of my FERS supplement when I turn age 62, and that will allow me to put off applying for my social security benefit for each year I can do that. So 8% returns per year is my goal. With this system (which I originally developed just for myself but eventually saw that by sharing it I could hopefully help many people) I’m hopeful that I can achieve that.
Screenshot of TSP Timing Data workbook Returns Summary tab as of 1-07-2022:
So how does the system work? See the How it Works tab next…