Over the time period covered (the first strategies were developed through back-testing of the period from January 2004 through June 2016, then went “live” in July 2016, and then the new method was developed in the spring of 2020 and went “live” in July 2020), the TSP Timing strategies have provided superior returns (better long-term returns than ALL of the other TSP-specific services that I am aware of; if you find one that has done better since 2004, let me know). Plus, there are no monthly/annual subscription fees, and the one-time purchase fee of $99 is far less than what most services charge in a single year. Following your initial purchase you may purchase an updated spreadsheet and manual for only $39 every year (or more or less often, as you prefer). There is no hand-holding necessary, you are in full control of your investments as you should be. Just follow the system with part or all of your TSP as you gain confidence in it. If you stick with it consistently there’s a good chance you will do well.
“If I had to research and analyze what you have put together, it would have taken me many many hours if I had even found the information your provided. I can now investigate and build on what you have done – this is part of the reason that I consider it very good value for money.” – J.S., Maryland
TSP Timing’s strategies also routinely beat all three of the recommended TSP portfolio’s of well-known “retirement mentor” Paul Merriman. These returns are included for comparison in the performance table below, and are tracked by the spreadsheet you will receive upon purchase.
The chart below depicts how various strategies performed over the 16-year period beginning January 1, 2004. The tracked strategies include buying and holding the TSP’s C, S or L funds, a balanced portfolio of 60% stocks (30% C, 30% S) and 40% bonds (F fund), following the TSP recommendations of well-known investment advisor Paul Merriman, and the TSP Timing strategy offered here at TSPtiming.com.
Below is an image taken from the TSP Timing Data spreadsheet as of 6/30/2020 showing the annual and compound returns through December 2019 of the strategies that are tracked. The image shows the various buy-and-hold strategies, Paul Merriman’s recommended conservative/moderate/aggressive strategies, and the now retired “Enhanced” and the current TSP Timing strategies. The row “Beat C?” shows how many years during the 16-year period each strategy beat the C fund (the S&P 500 index), which is the benchmark used by most investment advisers. Note that the new TSP Timing system has beaten the C fund return every single year, and had no negative returns. In fact the returns were in the double-digits every year so far! Again, I can’t predict if these amazing returns will continue into the future, but the system used is the same, so it’s possible.
So how does the system work? See the How it Works tab next…